The major inflation data reports have been released, and the initial readings indicate that inflation has exceeded expectations. While the data suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to allow any further rate cuts beyond those already implemented, optimism remains in the broader lending markets. This optimism is driven by expectations that the new administration may introduce changes to monetary policy in the longer term. Although inflation has come in higher than expected, it remains to be seen what next week’s PCE Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—will reveal.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer price data for goods and services was released earlier today for January, showing a 0.5% increase month-over-month and a 3.0% increase year-over-year. This exceeded economists’ expectations of a 0.3% rise and marked the third consecutive month of 0.1% increases. Shelter remains the primary driver of fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rising 0.4% in January and accounting for 30% of the overall increase.
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Wholesale prices rose sharply in January in another sign that lingering inflationary pressures in the economy will keep high U.S. interest rates from falling much anytime soon. The producer-price index increased 0.4% last month, the government said Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% gain.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04% with the current rate at 6.09%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 6.87%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.33%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.35%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 213,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.
What’s Ahead
Consumer Sentiment reports are scheduled for next week, though few other significant reports are expected. Most attention will be on the PCE Index report the following week, especially given the recent higher-than-expected inflation data.