The major report to look out for was the Trade Balance, which has decreased more than expected, suggesting that the current administration’s policies are having an impact. However, the long-term impact on the economy as a whole remain to be seen. This was followed closely by consumer credit, which came in far lower than expected, though many are predicting that consumer credit usage will grow over time. While the labor market remains constrained, the consumer market has remained stable in spite of the uncertainty brought on by the tariff policies.
Trade Balance
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $60.2 billion in June, down $11.5 billion from $71.7 billion in May, revised.
Consumer Credit
Revolving credit, mainly credit cards, declined for the second straight month in June, the Federal Reserve said. Revolving credit fell at a 1% rate in June after a 3.5% drop in the prior month. Declines in credit-card borrowing are rare: The last time revolving credit fell for two straight months was during the COVID pandemic in 2020.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10% with the current rate at 5.75%
- 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% with the current rate at 6.63%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% this week. Current rates at 6.15%
- 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% this week. Current rates at 6.16%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 226,000 compared to the expected claims of 221,000. The prior week landed at 219,000.
What’s Ahead
A heavy week with the next round of inflation data being released with both the CPI and PPI reports. It should be noted that this CPI will feature less recorded data, relying more on estimations. In addition, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Treasury Budget should prove to be impactful data releases.