With the CPI and PPI reports coming up this week, the previous week was light on reports of any significance. Most notable was the Non-Farm Payrolls which can have an outsized impact on inflation data reporting, as it’s a useful barometer to compare the cost of goods to the payroll of the average consumer. Following that is the ISM Manufacturing Index which came in slightly under expectations. Lastly, the JOLTS Job Openings is a minor indicator, but useful for seeing the state of the job market.
Non-Farm Payrolls
Wages are growing by about 4%. The Federal Reserve wants to see annual worker pay increase slow to 3% or less to help the central bank return U.S. inflation to low pre-pandemic norms. However, it’s not seeing much progress lately.
JOLTS Job Openings
The number of job openings in the U.S. sank in April to a more than three-year low of 8.1 million, another sign the labor market is cooling off as the economy slows.
ISM Manufacturing Index
A key barometer of U.S. factories fell to a three-month low as new orders waned and businesses were reluctant to invest due to high interest rates. “The manufacturing side of the economy appears to have stalled,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.07% with the current rate at 6.29%
- 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.99%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 6.64%
- 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.12% for this week. Current rates at 6.65%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 221,000.
What’s Ahead
With the CPI and PPI data releases this week, the rest of the week is very light on other data. All eyes are on the most defining inflation data reports across all markets. The Federal Reserve may have its favorite with the PCE Index, but many others, including lending partners, prefer to use the CPI and PPI as their barometer for inflation.