The FOMC meeting that was held the previous week to discuss upcoming decisions addressed the future of the economic landscape.
During his remarks, Jerome Powell stated that inflation will rise in the future, with consumers bearing the burden. Many have speculated that this means reductions in current rates are unlikely to happen anytime soon, in an attempt to keep inflation under control.
Another notable release was the leading economic indicators, which once again showed contraction—signaling the potential for further economic decline.
Leading Economic Indicators
The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the US inched down by 0.1% in July 2025 to 98.7 (2016=100), after declining by 0.3% in June. The LEI fell by 2.7% over the six months between January and July 2025, a faster rate of decline than its –1.0% contraction over the previous six-month period (July 2024 to January 2025).
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 5.69%
- 30-Yr FRM rates saw no change from last week, with the current rate at 6.58%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% this week. Current rates at 6.11%
- 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.06% this week. Current rates at 6.13%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 235,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 224,000.
What’s Ahead
PCI Index inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, is set for next week. Other notable releases will be the GDP Estimates for the second half of the year, Personal Income & Spending, Consumer Sentiment, and Retail Inventories.