The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the current interest rates has paved the way for a potential rate cut in September. While this news has been met enthusiastically by lending partners, the broader markets have indicated a slightly less warm reception despite both the data and Federal Reserve’s intentions being a match. Until September, we can expect a lull in significant data releases, with more substantial decisions anticipated then.

FOMC Rate Decision

Powell stated that the Federal Reserve seeks “a little more confidence” that inflation is consistently trending downward before taking action. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate now stands at 5.25% to 5.5%. Although consumer prices spiked briefly in the first few months of the year, causing the Federal Reserve to hesitate, inflation has since calmed.

Consumer Confidence 

The index of consumer confidence rose to 100.3 in July from a revised 97.8 in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the index would slip to 99.5 in July.

U.S. Hourly Wages

Wages rose a mild 0.2% last month. The increase in pay over the past year slowed to 3.6% from 3.8% in the prior month and is returning close to pre-pandemic levels.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.08% with the current rate at 5.99%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.05% with the current rate at 6.73%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a -0.22% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.10%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a -0.22% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.12%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 249,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week landed at 235,000.

What’s Ahead

Last week was tense as everyone anticipated the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates. This week, apart from the usual unemployment data, there are only minor releases like the US Services PMI and Consumer Credit Reports, which aren’t expected to have a significant impact.