The previous week has seen tremendous impacts with the Trump administration’s recently revealed tariff policies, sparking widespread concern about their broad economic effects. These concerns have already led to rapid contractions in multiple markets.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has stated he is very uncertain about any moves made by the Federal Reserve and wants to wait for additional information before making decisions.
Uncertainty is at an all-time high, without much relief—even in light of positive data from previous months. Without any clear direction, there is growing speculation that inflation will only increase from here. Meanwhile, employment data has already shown a rapid increase in unemployment forecasts.
U.S. Employment Report
The U.S. added a bigger-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March. Good news to be sure, but that was before President Trump unveiled norm-shattering tariffs on the rest of the world, the repercussions of which are yet to be felt on the labor market. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast an increase of 140,000 new jobs in March vs a revised 117,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, moved up to 4.2% from 4.1%, matching the highest rate in five months.
ISM Manufacturing
According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), tariffs are driving up business costs and dampening economic activity. U.S. manufacturers appear to have slipped back into a slump, facing higher input prices and weaker demand due to President Donald Trump’s new metal tariffs and pending duties on other imported goods. ISM’s manufacturing index fell to 49% in March, down from 50.3% the previous month—any reading below 50% indicates a contraction in the sector.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% with the current rate at 5.82%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 6.64%
MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.15% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.15% for this week. Current rates at 6.05%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 228,000. The prior week landed at 225,000.
What’s Ahead
Following reports that the tariff news has disrupted market expectations, we should anticipate that both the CPI and PPI forecasts will come in higher than expected.