A relatively light week given recent events, with the only notable releases being Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales. Consumer Sentiment has broken its recent downtrend, ticking up slightly. However, in the face of rising gas prices and increasing costs of living, this may shift in the next release. Retail Sales have also shown a positive uptick, indicating that the economy remains resilient despite ongoing global events.

Consumer Sentiment
US consumer sentiment showed some improvement amid a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, but it’s still at record lows, according to new data from the University of Michigan. The Index of Consumer Sentiment showed consumer sentiment ended April with a final reading of 49.8, above the 48.5 reading economists expected but marking the lowest level on record — below readings taken during the financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and when inflation spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Retail Sales
U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in March as the war with Iran boosted gasoline prices and led to a record surge in receipts at service stations, while tax refunds underpinned spending elsewhere.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07%, with the current rate at 5.58%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07%, with the current rate at 6.23%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 5.91%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.93%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 214,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead
Employment data, Trade Deficit, and Consumer Credit should be strong releases for this upcoming week.